Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 7.3% — a 6.2-point move over the past day.
US-Russia Nuclear Deal: Will an Agreement Be Reached?
Markets price the chance of an official US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement at 5.8%, a level that is unlikely.
5.8%0.0 pts 24h
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $661.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | 5.8% | 0.0 |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The scenario where a deal is reached holds a meaningful minority probability, while the remaining outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 1.0% to 6.3% — a 5.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 3.9% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 2.5% to 6.8% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 2.5% to 7.2% — a 4.7-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 17.5% to 7.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 21.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has, trading between 3.1% and 9.5% during the period. For a “Yes” resolution, an agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic weapons limitation must be publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russian governments. Qualifying agreements include treaties, frameworks, or memorandums covering warheads, delivery systems, verification, or strategic stability. An extension, amendment, or replacement of New START qualifies if finalized and announced by both parties within the timeframe. The deal can be bilateral or part of a multilateral framework, and ratification is not required. What would move the number: The approaching deadline of Jan 1, 2027, along with official statements from the White House, State Department, Kremlin, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs—or a consensus of credible reporting—could shift the odds. Any announcement confirming a deal that fits the market’s criteria would be decisive.
FAQ
What qualifies as a nuclear deal for this market?
An official agreement on nuclear arms control or limitation, publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia. It must address nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification, or strategic stability, and can be a treaty, framework, or memorandum.
Does the deal need to be ratified?
No. A formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient. Ratification or implementation is not required for the market to resolve to Yes.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if an agreement is reached between August 14, 2025 and the market’s end date, otherwise it resolves to No.
What if there are only exploratory talks?
Exploratory discussions or stated intent to negotiate, without a finalized and publicly announced agreement, do not qualify. Only concluded agreements acknowledged by both parties count.
Who decides if an agreement has been reached?
The primary resolution source is official statements from the U.S. or Russian governments. A clear consensus of credible reporting confirming a deal can also serve as resolution evidence.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice