Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 16.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Is Venezuela’s Next Presidential Election Scheduled? Live Odds
As of 10 min ago, prediction markets see a 16.5% probability that Venezuela’s next presidential election will be scheduled by the end of 2026. The requirement that the vote itself be set for before 2030 is a key condition for the market to resolve 'Yes'.
16.5%0.0 pts 24h
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $615.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | 16.5% | 0.0 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The election-scheduled scenario holds a substantial minority view in the market, while the remaining outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 16.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 19.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has been unlikely throughout the market’s history. As of 10 min ago, it stands at 16.5%. Since launch, it has traded between 15.5% and 26.0%. This market resolves to 'Yes' if a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled on or before the cutoff at the end of 2026. The scheduled election must be set to take place before 2030. An announcement after the deadline, even for a vote that would occur in 2026, does not count. The primary resolution source is official information from the government of Venezuela, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The probability could shift materially if the Venezuelan government announces a date before the end-of-2026 deadline. Any such announcement, or credible reporting confirming it, would satisfy the market's resolution criteria. Conversely, the absence of an announcement as the deadline approaches might lower the figure. The market cares only about the scheduling announcement itself, not when the election ultimately takes place, provided it is set for before 2030.
FAQ
What event is this market about?
It is about whether the Venezuelan government will officially schedule the next presidential election by the end of 2026. The market does not predict the election’s result or exact voting date.
How does the market determine a "Yes" outcome?
A "Yes" requires an official announcement (or consensus credible reporting) that a date has been set for the election, and that the election is scheduled to occur before 2030.
What if the election is scheduled but for a date after 2029?
That would not qualify because the market stipulates the vote must be scheduled for before 2030.
When will the market resolve?
The market closes and resolves after the end-of-2026 deadline, once it is clear whether a qualifying announcement was made.
What sources are used to verify the outcome?
The primary source is official information from the Venezuelan government. In the absence of that, a consensus of credible news reporting may be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice