Will Venezuela Schedule Its Next Election by 2026? Odds
Traders give a 24.0% chance that Venezuela's next presidential election will be formally scheduled by the end of 2026, according to prediction markets. The latest reading, updated 14 min ago, comes amid scant official word from Caracas.
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $596.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | 24.0% | -1.0 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The 'Yes' outcome is a a substantial minority view, while the alternative scenarios are effectively ruled out.
Context
Trajectory: As of the most recent update, the headline probability stands at 24.0%. It has traded between 9.5% and 38.5% over the period. Resolution & Rules: To settle the market, a Venezuelan presidential election must be formally scheduled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, with the election itself slated to occur before 2030. The market hinges solely on whether a date is announced within this window—the actual election date can fall later, provided it meets the pre-2030 condition. The primary resolution source is official government information, but a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. What Would Move the Number: The formal condition that would settle the market is an official announcement by the Venezuelan government, or a consensus of credible reporting, that the next presidential election date has been set by the deadline. The resolution deadline is Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. In the absence of such a signal, the probability may drift on sentiment but ultimately resolves on the binary condition.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves when the outcome is determined—either upon an official announcement of an election date, or at the deadline of December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if no date has been set.
What counts as a 'scheduled' election?
The market considers an election scheduled when the Venezuelan government makes an official announcement, or when a consensus of credible reporting indicates a date has been set, provided the election is to be held before 2030.
Does the election have to happen by the deadline?
No. The deadline applies only to the announcement of a date. The election itself can be scheduled for a later date, as long as it is before 2030.
What is the resolution source if the government does not officially announce a date?
A consensus of credible reporting may be used as an alternative source to determine if a date has been effectively set.
Can the market resolve earlier than the deadline?
Yes, if an election date is announced and credited by the resolution source before December 31, 2026, the market will settle to 'Yes' early.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice