WTI Crude Oil July 2026: Market-Implied Probabilities

Prediction markets currently price certain outcomes for West Texas Intermediate crude in July 2026 with unusual conviction. The contracts imply a 100% probability that WTI will hit $70 and $80 per barrel at some point during that month. Such certainty is rare in still-distant events and suggests either that the current price already exceeds those levels or that traders consider them robust floors. The next threshold with a majority probability is $85, at 61.5%. From there, the odds fall away steeply. The chance of reaching $90 is 31.3%, and $95 drops to 16.4%. A triple-digit print—$100—sits at just 10.2%. The long tail extends to $130, where the market assigns a mere 1.0% probability. On the downside, the picture is muted. The probability of WTI dipping to $65 is only 9.5%, and $60 is a remote 3.1%. The $55 threshold is priced at exactly 1.0%, while $50 and below fall under 1%. The market effectively dismisses any sustained drop below $60, let alone a collapse to $10 or $20, both priced at 0.1%. These probabilities do not forecast an average price. They reflect the market’s view on whether the commodity will touch a given level at any point during July 2026. The distribution peaks around the $70-$85 band. Because the contracts are binary, they ask only whether a level is touched, not how far beyond. This structure concentrates probability around the perceived trading range and leads to the rapid drop in odds seen beyond $90. By reading the odds this way, one can see a rough consensus: WTI is likely to trade mostly in the $70s and $80s, with a fair chance of an excursion to $90 and only a slim shot at reaching $100. The total value wagered across all these binary contracts is $4.6 million, a sum that suggests meaningful but not speculative-grade liquidity. The market will settle based on whether the daily high or low price—depending on the contract—breaches the stated thresholds. The observation window closes on August 1, 2026.