Sep 23, 2026
Resolved: Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 — NO. A week before, markets priced it at 93%.
Where Will the Next US-Iran Peace Talks Be Held? Odds & Probability: Result & Final Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026Resolved
Updated · Volume $6.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 13.8% to 50.3% — a 36.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 87.3% to 63.6% — a 23.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 79.3% to 86.0% — a 6.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What are Iran’s latest conditions to end its war with the US? — Al Jazeera
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 85.0% to 78.7% — a 6.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran says conditions to re-engage in talks, end war sent to US via Qatar — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 78.8% to 83.0% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks amid int’l hopes dialogue with US will resume — Al Jazeera
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 74.7% to 81.2% — a 6.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks amid int’l hopes dialogue with US will resume — Al Jazeera
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 80.3% to 73.8% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 80.8% to 77.3% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 66.5% — a 7.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US-Iran talks in deadlock – what’s the latest? — Al Jazeera
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice