Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Where Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in 2026? Odds & Probability
According to prediction markets, the chance that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin do not hold a qualifying meeting by the end of 2026 stands at 62.5% — a the favored outcome result. A meeting requires direct personal interaction, not mere presence at the same event.
62.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
Updated · Volume $1.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | 62.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | 31.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | 3.5% | +0.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? | 0.7% | -0.2 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? | 0.7% | -0.1 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland? | 0.4% | +0.3 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The outcome where no meeting occurs is heavily favored, while a meeting in China is seen as an outside chance; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 55.0% to 61.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 57.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 57.0% to 61.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 40.5% to 56.0% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 40.5% to 53.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 42.5% to 53.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 51.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 57.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 58.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability that no meeting takes place has shifted within a range of 36.5% to 64.0% since the market opened. Currently at 62.5%, it has moved 0.0 pts points over the last day and. The market resolves based on whether a qualifying meeting occurs between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A meeting is defined as any in-person encounter where both leaders are present and interact directly — an exchange of words, a handshake, or similar personal interaction. Simply being in the same room or making eye contact does not count. For this market, a meeting in any of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) is treated as a single outcome. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The odds of no meeting tend to firm up as the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches without a confirmed encounter. Conversely, credible reports of a planned meeting or a sudden diplomatic breakthrough could shift sentiment. Since the resolution relies on authoritative news reports, any formal announcement or widely leaked meeting plan would likely move the market.
FAQ
What counts as a meeting between Trump and Putin?
A meeting requires both leaders to be present in person and to interact directly, such as through a conversation or handshake. Simply being in the same room without interaction does not qualify.
When does the market close?
The market considers any meeting until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If no qualifying meeting occurs by then, it resolves to “No meeting by December 31.”
What is the resolution source?
The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, meaning multiple reliable news outlets must confirm the meeting details.
Does a virtual meeting count?
No, the market explicitly requires an in-person encounter with direct interaction.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice