Will RBC Fail by End of 2026?: Odds & Probability

As of 10 min ago, RBC failure odds sit at 5.1%. Since the market launched, the probability has ranged from 2.5% to 29.3%. Total volume stands at $74.3K. The probability line has remained persistently low, reinforcing the view that a formal failure is a distant prospect. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Royal Bank of Canada fails by Dec 31, 2026. Failure is defined by official regulatory actions: a formal insolvency declaration, licence withdrawal, court-ordered liquidation, entry into a resolution regime (such as bail-ins or a bridge bank), government intervention that wipes out equity, a forced merger directed by a regulator, or a publicly acknowledged default that triggers resolution. The primary resolution source is the bank’s home regulator, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a potential failure occurs and regulatory action is pending, the market may remain open for a post-deadline confirmation period. Minor financial wobbles are not enough; only a formal regulatory move that fits the failure definition could lift the odds. The approaching deadline of Dec 31, 2026 may focus attention in the final months, but markets currently see little reason to expect a change.