Cartel Leader Arrests in 2026: Live Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of Audias Flores-Silva being taken into custody this year at 100.0%, making it near-certain. The contract will settle based on whether law enforcement arrests him by the market's deadline.
Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?
Updated · Volume $176.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Audias Flores-Silva be arrested in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026? | 57.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026? | 50.0% | +4.0 |
| Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026? | 48.5% | +3.0 |
| Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026? | 46.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026? | 36.8% | +1.9 |
| Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026? | 33.4% | +0.1 |
| Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026? | 26.5% | +0.5 |
While the market sees Audias Flores-Silva’s arrest as near-certain, it assigns meaningfully lower probabilities to the other figures, with Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar favored, several others as tossups, and the rest at minority chances.
Context
The headline probability now stands at 100.0%. It has fluctuated between 36.0% and 58.5% over the observed period. In the last day, it has moved +4.0 pts. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Audias Flores-Silva is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the cutoff, Jan 1, 2027. Temporary holding at a detention facility qualifies, as does voluntary surrender to authorities. Being named in an indictment or having an arrest warrant issued without execution does not trigger a 'Yes' outcome. The primary resolution source is official information from the arresting government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The probability hinges on whether an arrest occurs before the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Any official confirmation of detention would push the number higher, while indications that an arrest is unlikely by that date would lower it. The resolution source remains authoritative law enforcement statements.
FAQ
What qualifies as an arrest for this market?
The market considers physical custody by law enforcement authorities, including temporary holding, voluntary surrender in response to a warrant, or being placed under house arrest. Simply being questioned or indicted without arrest does not count.
Does a temporary detention count if the person is later released?
Yes. Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on a detention warrant qualifies, as long as it is in an official law enforcement capacity.
What happens if an arrest warrant is issued but not executed?
The market would not resolve to 'Yes'. Only actual physical custody or formal surrender in response to a warrant triggers a positive resolution.
How is the outcome verified?
Resolution relies on official information from the arresting government or law enforcement agency. If that is insufficient, a consensus of credible media reports may be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice