Will Tim Cook Leave Apple Before 2027? Market Odds
Prediction markets assign 100.0% odds to Tim Cook leaving Apple’s top job before 2027, a level that traders have maintained as near-certain.
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?
Updated · Volume $701.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | 100.0% | — |
| Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? | 14.2% | 0.0 |
| Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027? | 7.6% | +0.1 |
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | 7.5% | -2.0 |
| Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? | 4.0% | -0.4 |
The market is overwhelmingly near-certain for Tim Cook's exit, while an Andy Jassy departure is viewed as unlikely and the other four CEO scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The probability of a Tim Cook departure by the end of 2026 now stands at 100.0%. Over the life of the market, it has ranged from 3.4% to 56.9%. Total trading volume has reached $701.6K. The market resolves strictly on whether Tim Cook ceases to be Apple’s CEO for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement of his resignation or firing before the market’s end date triggers immediate resolution to 'Yes,' regardless of when the departure actually takes effect. The primary resolution sources are official statements from Apple or Tim Cook, or a consensus of credible reporting. The key formal conditions that can shift the probability are any credible signal of a pending executive change. The market’s end date is Dec 31, 2026; a departure announcement before then settles the contract instantly. The resolution sources include company filings, public statements, and investigative journalism—any of which could supply new information that moves prices.
FAQ
What exactly triggers a 'Yes' resolution for Tim Cook?
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Tim Cook is not Apple's CEO for any uninterrupted period between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Even a single day gap counts.
Does an announced departure count if it hasn't taken effect yet?
Yes. If an official announcement is made before the market's end date, the market resolves to 'Yes' immediately, even if the departure is scheduled for a later date.
What sources are used to confirm a CEO exit?
The primary sources are official information from the company and the CEO. A consensus of credible news reporting can also be used.
Does a temporary leave or medical absence count as being 'out'?
If the leave means the person is not serving as CEO for any length of time, then yes, it qualifies.
What happens if no announcement is made before the deadline?
If Tim Cook remains CEO through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET without any interruption, the market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice