Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 3.4% to 0.7% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran and Oman exchange proposals to manage Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
Strait of Hormuz Warship Transits: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 at 0.1%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $527.8K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
Context
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 9.5% to 3.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 10.5% to 3.9% — a 6.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: After Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, has Iran war now reached Caspian Sea? — Al Jazeera
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 14.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 27.0% to 17.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice