Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Russia 2026 Duma Election: Most Seat Gains Odds
Prediction markets price Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election at 71.5%.
71.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Updated · Volume $23.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 71.5% | -2.0 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 21.9% | +2.4 |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 4.6% | -0.5 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 1.2% | -0.1 |
| Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.6% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 34 tracked outcomes and $23.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, is priced at 71.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice