Russian Parliamentary Election: Most Seats Gain Odds
Markets price United Russia (ER) at 54.5% to gain the most seats in the upcoming parliamentary election, a close to a coin flip prospect. The vote is scheduled for September 2026.
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Updated · Volume $15.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 54.5% | 0.0 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 38.6% | -0.5 |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 4.3% | +0.4 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party S gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Other gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party I gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party O gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Z gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party U gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party K gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party C gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party A gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party W gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party J gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party D gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party P gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Y gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party G gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party H gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party L gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party T gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party B gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party X gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Q gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party V gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party F gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party N gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party E gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party M gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
United Russia (ER) is priced as close to a coin flip to gain the most seats, while New People (NL) holds a substantial minority view chance. All other parties are considered long shots.
Context
United Russia's probability now sits at 54.5%, having traded between 52.5% and 66.5% over the tracked period. The past day saw a move of 0.0 pts. The market resolves to the party that increases its seat count the most in the next State Duma election, relative to the pre-election tally. Should no definitive results emerge by September 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle to "Other". If multiple parties tie in seat gains, the winner is determined first by valid votes received, then by alphabetical order of the party abbreviation. What alters the number? The 2026 election itself, any advance polls or registration developments, and the eventual release of official results. The resolution deadline—September 30, 2027—also sets a hard stop. The market relies on credible reporting consensus, defaulting to Russian Central Election Commission data if needed.
FAQ
How does the market determine which party gained the most seats?
It compares the number of seats each party wins in the next election with their seat counts before the election. The party with the largest net gain wins.
What happens if the election results are not clear by the deadline?
If definitive results are not known by September 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other".
How are ties in seat gains resolved?
First, by which party received more valid votes. If that still results in a tie, the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically wins.
On what sources does the market rely for resolution?
On a consensus of credible reporting, but if there's ambiguity, it defaults to official results from the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice