Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.4% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 7.4% chance to the Kurdistan Regional Government formally declaring independence from Iraq by year-end 2026, a probability that has.
7.4%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $273.0K
Markets view a declaration as an outside chance, leaving the 'No' outcome — no declaration by the deadline — as the dominant scenario.
Context
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.2% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.6% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.4% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.5% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.6% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
The probability sits at 7.4%,.. The market considers a declaration unlikely. For a 'Yes' resolution, the market requires a formal public declaration by the KRG, a ruling party, coalition, or executive official, announcing a new independent state and claiming authority over territory within Iraq's internationally recognized borders. The announcement alone is sufficient, regardless of actual governance or recognition. The claimed territory must be at least partially specified and mostly within Iraqi borders as of the market's creation. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The deadline for a declaration is Jan 1, 2027; an announcement before then resolves the market to 'Yes'.
FAQ
What qualifies as an official declaration of independence?
A public statement by the KRG, a ruling party, coalition, or executive official establishing a new independent state separate from Iraq and claiming governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq's recognized borders.
Does the KRG need to actually govern the territory?
No. A qualifying public announcement is sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution, even if governing authority is never established, maintained, or internationally recognized.
How precisely must the claimed territory be defined?
The territory can be partially specified and need not have exact borders, but a majority of it must lie within Iraq's internationally recognized borders as they stood at the market's creation.
How is the resolution determined?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting about whether a qualifying declaration occurred by the deadline.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice