Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be no Hormuz agreement at 90.6%.
90.6%-3.5 pts 24h
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Updated · Volume $1.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | 90.6% | -3.5 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | 5.1% | +2.1 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | 3.5% | +1.1 |
The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $1.1M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be no Hormuz agreement, is priced at 90.6%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice