Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will there be no Hormuz agreement at 96.5%.
96.5%-0.4 pts 24h
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Updated · Volume $1.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | 96.5% | -0.4 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | 1.6% | -0.2 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | 1.5% | +0.1 |
The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $1.8M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will there be no Hormuz agreement, is priced at 96.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice