Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate at 62.0%.
62.0%+0.8 pts 24h
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
Updated · Volume $441.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | 62.0% | +0.8 |
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? | 31.2% | +0.2 |
| Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | 3.5% | -0.4 |
| Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? | 3.3% | -0.1 |
The top 4 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 4 tracked outcomes and $441.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate, is priced at 62.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice