Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 3.9% to 6.7% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Will a Country Leave BRICS in 2026? Market Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets give a 5.9% chance that a BRICS member state departs the bloc in 2026, reflecting unlikely expectations.
5.9%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $76.4K
The market sees a BRICS exit as unlikely, with a 5.9% probability.
Context
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 7.2% to 3.9% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 2.9% to 6.3% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 8.0% to 2.9% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 8.0% to 2.9% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
The contract’s probability currently reads 5.9% (updated 15 min ago). It has traded between 5.7% and 11.3% since launch. The market settles as “Yes” if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or submits an official notice of denunciation to the group before the deadline. That deadline is Jan 1, 2027. The determination relies on official information from the relevant government or BRICS, though a consensus of credible reporting can also trigger resolution. Only a formal withdrawal or notice of denunciation by a member state can settle the contract affirmatively. All other developments carry no weight until the Jan 1, 2027 cutoff. The market will also react to credible reports indicating such a move is imminent, as per the resolution source criteria.
FAQ
What counts as a country leaving BRICS?
Either a formal withdrawal from the bloc or an official notice of denunciation submitted to BRICS. Both actions are treated equally for resolution.
Does the market require a physical exit or just notice?
A notice of denunciation—an official signal of intent to leave—is sufficient. No actual departure or timeline completion is necessary.
What if multiple countries leave?
The market resolves “Yes” if any member state triggers the condition; multiple exits do not change the outcome.
What source confirms the event?
Official information from the government in question or BRICS, or a consensus of credible reporting, as stated in the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice