Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 24.3% to 16.6% — a 7.7-point move over the past day.
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood of a new Abraham Accords entrant by year-end 2026 at 7.5%, making it unlikely as the clock ticks toward Jan 1, 2027.
7.5%+0.2 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $306.0K
The market heavily favors no new signatory, with the chance of a new country joining priced as unlikely and other long-shot scenarios—such as multiple nations joining at once—remaining negligible.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 23.7% to 16.6% — a 7.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 18.9% to 23.2% — a 4.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 16.3% to 26.2% — a 9.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 17.1% to 25.3% — a 8.2-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 26.8% to 17.3% — a 9.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 14.3% to 21.1% — a 6.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 18.8% to 25.7% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 21.1% to 18.4% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 22.7% to 18.8% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The current market price is 7.5%. It has fluctuated between a low of 6.0% and a high of 46.7% since opening. The last 24 hours saw a move of +0.2 pts. To settle as Yes, a country not previously party to the Abraham Accords must formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel that is publicly acknowledged and tied to the Accords by Jan 1, 2027. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan count as existing signatories and thus cannot trigger a Yes. Resolution will primarily look to official government statements, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used if necessary. The principal formal condition that could shift the odds is the approaching deadline of Jan 1, 2027, after which the No outcome is locked in. Before that date, any official announcement of a new Abraham Accords normalization would dramatically alter the price. The resolution mechanism—relying on official statements with credible reporting as a fallback—determines the precise trigger for settlement.
FAQ
What is the Abraham Accords?
The Abraham Accords are a series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, initially signed in 2020.
Which countries are already in the Accords?
As of the market’s reference date, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan are parties and do not count for resolution.
What counts as a formal signing?
It must be an official agreement publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly tied to the Abraham Accords.
When is the final deadline?
The market resolves based on any signing through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
How is the market resolved?
Resolution is initially based on official government statements, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice