Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 6.6% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? Odds & Probability
Markets see it as unlikely that any US ally will acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027, pricing the chance at 5.1%. The market covers all NATO members and Major Non-NATO Allies, and even Israel’s tacit arsenal won’t trigger a ‘Yes’.
5.1%-0.2 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $212.7K
The market prices a ‘Yes’ outcome as unlikely, with the overwhelming likelihood pointing to ‘No’.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 4.2% to 7.0% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
The market’s probability has hovered at low levels. Over the last day, the probability moved -0.2 pts points. A ‘Yes’ requires credible confirmation—from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible news sources—that a US ally without nuclear weapons as of 12 November 2025 has obtained an operational nuclear weapon by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Nuclear sharing deals without independent control do not qualify, and any Israeli admission is excluded. ‘US ally’ means any NATO member or Major Non-NATO Ally on that date. The market’s price would adjust on any such credible report of acquisition. It will resolve at the deadline on Jan 1, 2027 based on the designated sources.
FAQ
Which countries count as US allies for this market?
All NATO members and countries designated as Major Non-NATO Allies by the United States as of 12 November 2025.
Would a nuclear sharing arrangement trigger a ‘Yes’?
No. The ally must have full independent control over an operational nuclear weapon.
What about Israel’s undeclared nuclear capability?
Even an official Israeli admission would not qualify for a ‘Yes’ resolution.
How is possession confirmed?
Through credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a government’s own declaration, or a consensus of reputable global news organizations.
When does the market resolve?
By 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying acquisition is confirmed by then, it resolves to ‘No’.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice