Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 19.5% to 8.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Will Another Country Leave OPEC in 2026? Live Odds
As of 9 min ago, prediction markets give another OPEC withdrawal in 2026 a 17.0% chance—a reading that remains unlikely. The market resolves on whether any current member officially announces an exit before Dec 31, 2026.
17.0%+4.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $184.6K
Across platforms
5.0 pt spread- Polymarket17.0%
- Kalshi22.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
The headline scenario of another OPEC exit remains unlikely, while the market overwhelmingly expects no further departures.
Context
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 17.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 36.5% to 26.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 36.5% to 24.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 38.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 38.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 41.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 6.5% to 32.5% — a 26.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 6.5% to 17.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 17.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has settled at 17.0%, reflecting unlikely odds. The market resolves to "Yes" if a current OPEC member—one that had not already declared an exit before the market opened—issues an official withdrawal announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Only formal government statements count; leaks or unofficial comments do not. Should official sources be unclear, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome. Resolution hinges on the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. Any qualifying announcement before that cutoff settles the market as "Yes." The primary resolution source is the member state’s own government declaration, with credible media consensus acting as a fallback.
FAQ
Which countries are considered OPEC members for this market?
The market references OPEC membership as it stood at the time of market creation, excluding any country that had already announced its withdrawal before that point.
What qualifies as an official withdrawal announcement?
A formal statement from a member country’s government or designated authority. Unofficial remarks, leaks, or media speculation do not meet the threshold.
Does the withdrawal need to take effect by the end of 2026?
No. The market only requires an official announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time, regardless of when the withdrawal becomes effective.
How is the market resolved if there are conflicting reports?
The primary source is official government information. If that is unavailable or ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice