Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 32.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Israel tells UK to close East Jerusalem consulate within 30 days — Al Jazeera
Israeli Ambassador Expulsion: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that any country expels an Israeli ambassador by December 31 at 28.5%, a level that reflects a substantial minority view and.
28.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $54.7K
The Yes scenario is priced as a substantial minority view, while the No outcome remains the baseline expectation.
Context
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 33.0% to 20.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 21.5% to 31.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 21.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The probability of an expulsion stands at 28.5% — a substantial minority view. To resolve to Yes, a government must officially announce the expulsion of an Israeli ambassador assigned at the time of market creation. The announcement alone qualifies, regardless of whether the ambassador leaves. Resignations, recalls, and voluntary departures are irrelevant. The primary resolution sources are official statements from Israel’s government, the expelling government, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The market will close at Dec 31, 2026. Any official expulsion announcement by a qualifying government would move the number. The market resolves at Dec 31, 2026, using official statements or a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What counts as an expulsion?
An official, definitive announcement by a government that an Israeli ambassador is being or will be expelled. The ambassador does not need to actually leave the country.
What if an ambassador is recalled or resigns?
Voluntary departures, resignations, and recalls do not qualify. Only expulsions by the host government count.
How is the market settled?
It resolves based on official information from Israel's government, the expelling government, or an overwhelming consensus of credible news reporting.
Which countries are covered?
Any country where Israel had an assigned ambassador at the time this market was created.
When does the market close?
The market covers events through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice