Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.3% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Will a NATO Member Withdraw? Market Odds
Traders price the chance that any NATO member takes the formal step of filing a withdrawal notice by Jan 1, 2027 at just 2.4%, a a long shot.
2.4%-0.1 pts 24h
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Trading centers on the headline scenario; the other listed outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 3.5% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
The contract has remained a long shot throughout the observed period. Volume stands at $1.4M. Over the past day the odds moved -0.1 pts. The market resolves to Yes if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or submits a notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by Jan 1, 2027. Simply leaving NATO’s integrated military command structure does not trigger a Yes. The resolution source is official information from the relevant government and NATO, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The probability rises or falls on formal triggers: the passing of the Jan 1, 2027 deadline with no country having filed a denunciation or withdrawal would resolve the market to No, while an official notification before that date would resolve it to Yes. Political statements or changes in command arrangements do not directly settle the contract.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a country leaving NATO for this market?
Two actions qualify: a formal withdrawal from the alliance, or the submission of an official notice of denunciation as described in Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Both must occur by the resolution deadline.
Does leaving NATO’s military command structure trigger a Yes?
No. A country can leave the integrated military command without formally withdrawing from the treaty. The market explicitly requires a full withdrawal or denunciation notice.
Who determines the official outcome?
The market relies on official statements from the member state’s government and NATO. If official confirmation is unavailable or ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting can serve as the resolution source.
When does this market expire?
The resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Any formal withdrawal or notice of denunciation filed on or before that date will determine the outcome. If none occurs, the market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice