Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Will BRICS Add a New Member in 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets give a new BRICS member in 2026 a 14.5% chance, with the resolution hinging on a formal invitation being accepted before the year's end.
14.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $38.4K
The "Yes" outcome is seen as unlikely; the balance of probability strongly favors no expansion in 2026.
Context
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 14.5% to 22.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 22.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 13.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 17.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 24.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 12.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 19.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of a new BRICS member in 2026 is 14.5%. The market has fluctuated between 11.0% and 19.0% over its lifespan. The past day saw a shift of 0.0 pts. This market resolves to "Yes" if a country accepts an invitation to join BRICS between the market's creation and Jan 1, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Only new member states count; partner states do not qualify. Resolution will be based on information from BRICS members or a consensus of credible reporting. The probability reflects the market's assessment of whether such an acceptance will occur. Official announcements or credible leaks of an invitation or acceptance would shift the price. With a deadline of Jan 1, 2027, the remaining time acts as the primary constraint.
FAQ
What determines a "new member" for this market?
The market resolves to "Yes" only if a country formally accepts an invitation to become a full member state of BRICS. Partner states do not count.
When does the market expire?
The deadline is Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. If no such acceptance has occurred by then, it resolves to "No".
How is the resolution verified?
Official BRICS announcements serve as the primary source, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Does it matter when the invitation was issued?
The key event is the acceptance. As long as the acceptance occurs between the market's creation and the deadline, it counts.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice