Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 6.2% to 3.4% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
China Blockade of Taiwan in 2026: Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets assign 3.5% to China imposing a blockade on Taiwan by year-end 2026, an outcome seen as a long shot. To resolve Yes, the blockade must halt foreign commercial traffic to or from the main island’s ports or airports for at least 24 hours, whether declared or enforced de facto.
3.5%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $370.0K
The Yes scenario—a Chinese blockade of Taiwan—is the focal point and remains unlikely; the No contract, encompassing all outcomes that fall short of the strict blockade criteria, accounts for the vast majority of the probability.
Context
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 6.7% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The market’s probability has stayed in a low range over its history. In the last day, the price shifted +0.1 pts,
To settle Yes, China must announce or de facto enforce an aerial or naval blockade that stops foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports for at least 24 hours. The blockade must cover part or all of the main island; military exercises, economic sanctions, islet-only incidents, or a single vessel interception do not count unless they form a persistent pattern of denial. Resolution is determined by a broad consensus of credible reporting. The latest date for such an event is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. What could move the number: the approaching deadline of Jan 1, 2027; an official Chinese declaration of a blockade or the issuance and enforcement of navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan’s approach lanes; and any credible reports that a de facto blockade has been established per the market’s criteria. Market data updated 9 min ago.
FAQ
What counts as a blockade under this market?
A blockade is defined as China preventing the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for at least 24 hours. It can be declared officially or enforced de facto without an announcement, as long as credible reporting establishes that access is being denied.
Do military exercises near Taiwan trigger a Yes resolution?
No. Military exercises, drills, or warning areas that do not actively stop third-country ships or aircraft and do not materially deny access are not considered a qualifying blockade.
What about economic sanctions or cyber attacks?
Economic or coercive measures—such as sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, or GPS jamming—do not count unless they are accompanied by physical interdiction or enforced closure that meets the 24-hour threshold.
How is the market resolved?
Resolution depends on a broad consensus of credible reporting. If widely accepted news sources report that China has met the blockade criteria, the market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
What is the cutoff date for a blockade to occur?
The event must take place on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to qualify for a Yes resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice