Will China Invade Taiwan by 2027?: Odds & Probability
Markets price an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 at 11.5%, unlikely.
Updated · Volume $3.0M
The "Yes" outcome is unlikely, while the market overwhelmingly expects no invasion by the deadline.
Context
The probability of an invasion by 2027 currently stands at 11.5%. Over the life of the market, it has traded. The market resolves to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan)—including any inhabited islands administered by the ROC—by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Uninhabited islands do not qualify. The resolution source is official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. The resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2028. No other scheduled events automatically determine the outcome. The price reflects the market's collective assessment of whether a qualifying invasion will occur, governed by these formal criteria.
FAQ
What constitutes an invasion for this market?
The market defines an invasion as a military offensive by China aimed at establishing control over any portion of the Republic of China, including inhabited islands administered by Taiwan. Uninhabited islands are excluded.
When will the market resolve?
Resolution occurs if a qualifying invasion is confirmed before the deadline of December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no such event transpires by then, the market settles to "No."
Who confirms whether an invasion has taken place?
Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council serves as the primary resolution source. In the absence of such confirmation, a consensus of credible reporting is accepted.
Do territorial waters or uninhabited features count?
No. Only inhabited islands under the administration of the Republic of China qualify. Uninhabited islands, regardless of their strategic value, do not trigger a "Yes" resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice