Will China Invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Odds & Probability
Markets put the probability of a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan by June 2027 at 7.5%, a reading that counts as unlikely.
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With an invasion considered unlikely, the alternative—no qualifying attack by mid-2027—remains the market's dominant expectation.
Context
The market's assessment of an invasion by the mid-2027 deadline sits at 7.5%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Republic of China territory—including inhabited islands—before June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Uninhabited islands are excluded. Settlement relies on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting. The outcome depends on whether a qualifying offensive occurs by Jul 1, 2027; no other scheduled events shape the market's timeline. Any official acknowledgment or credible report of such an attack would trigger resolution.
FAQ
What qualifies as an invasion under this market's rules?
The market requires China to commence a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any part of the Republic of China, including inhabited islands. Strikes on uninhabited islands or purely naval or air incidents without a ground offensive do not count.
How is the outcome determined?
Resolution is based on official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the UN, any UN Security Council permanent member, or a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if an invasion begins just before the deadline?
As long as the offensive commences by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market would resolve to 'Yes,' even if control is not fully established until after the cutoff.
Does a cyberattack or blockade count?
No, the rules specify a military offensive intended to establish territorial control, not economic coercion or cyber operations.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice