Sep 25, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Hamas Disarmament Agreement Probability
Markets price the likelihood that Hamas will issue a formal disarmament commitment for the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025 at 11.0%—unlikely. Only a credible, official announcement from Hamas leadership can trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
11.0%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Updated · Volume $3.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | 11.0% | -1.0 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by February 28? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market focuses on the single question of a disarmament announcement; the alternative—no qualifying announcement—covers the remaining probability.
Context
Sep 23, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 21.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 27.0% to 19.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 42.5% to 26.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 36.0% to 43.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 41.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 36.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 42.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Data as of 10 min ago ago, markets put the probability of a Hamas disarmament announcement at 11.0%, having traded between 9.0% and 22.0%. To resolve 'Yes', Hamas must officially announce it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The announcement has to come from the widely acknowledged Hamas leadership and represent a formal policy directive. Partial disarmament—such as giving up a class of weapons or agreeing to a phased process—qualifies as long as it is part of a recognized disarmament effort. Informal statements, conditional plans, or expressions of intent without a formal directive do not count. Resolution is based on official Hamas statements or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the policy. The market runs through Jan 1, 2027; any qualifying announcement before then settles the contract to 'Yes', otherwise it resolves 'No'. The main drivers are official actions and credible reports, not rumors or speculation.
FAQ
What qualifies as a Hamas disarmament announcement?
Only a formal policy directive from the widely acknowledged Hamas leadership announcing a commitment to disarm in the Gaza Strip, either partially or completely, by the deadline.
Does the announcement have to be about full disarmament?
No. Partial disarmament counts, such as surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages, provided it is part of a recognized disarmament process.
What sources are used to determine if the announcement was made?
Resolution relies on official Hamas statements or a wide consensus of credible reporting that a disarmament policy has been instituted. Informal or unofficial statements do not qualify.
What happens if Hamas makes an announcement after the deadline?
The market only considers announcements made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Any later announcement would not settle to 'Yes'.
Can a statement of intent without a formal directive count?
No. Only official policy announcements are considered; contingent statements or expressions of intent without a formal directive do not resolve the market.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice