Hamas Disarmament by Dec 31, 2025: Odds & Probability

The prediction market asks whether Hamas will make an official commitment to disarm in the Gaza Strip by the end of 2025. The market price currently stands at 20.5%. To trigger a 'Yes' resolution, an announcement must come from Hamas’s widely acknowledged leadership and amount to a formal policy directive. Partial disarmament—such as relinquishing specific weapon categories or agreeing to a phased process—qualifies, provided it is part of an acknowledged disarmament effort. Informal statements, intent without formal policy, or announcements contingent on future conditions do not meet the criteria. The 20.5% probability means the market expects a four-in-five chance that no such announcement occurs before the deadline. Sub-markets for earlier milestones—November 30, March 31, February 28, and June 30, 2025—all sit at 0.0%. The absence of any positive pricing on those dates shows that traders see virtually no prospect of a rapid agreement. If a qualifying announcement were to materialise, the market implies it would most likely happen close to December 31. Total trading volume in the main market is roughly $2.1 million, a level that indicates genuine risk-taking rather than speculative noise. The market does not distinguish between full and partial disarmament, so the 20.5% probability also covers scenarios where Hamas might agree to hand over only certain systems or leave some force structures intact under a broader political framework. Resolution relies on either a direct official statement or a wide consensus of credible reporting that a disarmament policy has been adopted. This dual-source rule reduces the chances of ambiguous announcements swaying the outcome. The binary resolution—Yes if the announcement arrives by 23:59 ET on 31 December 2025, No otherwise—focuses the entire probability weight on the final deadline. Earlier dates show no activity, underscoring a calendar-based structure that concentrates risk at the very end of the timeline.