Will Hezbollah disarm by...?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31 at 10.5%.
10.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Updated · Volume $3.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | 10.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
The top 3 outcomes account for 10.5% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $3.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31, is priced at 10.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice