Will Hezbollah disarm by...?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31 at 7.5%.
7.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Updated · Volume $3.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | 7.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $3.1M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31, is priced at 7.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice