Will Iran Legalize Gay Marriage? Odds & Probability
Markets give Iran legalizing gay marriage a 1.9% chance, making it effectively ruled out. Resolution hinges on formal recognition by December 31, 2026.
Updated · Volume $79.3K
With the Yes outcome at effectively ruled out, the No probability is essentially the complement, and no other outcomes attract meaningful volume.
Context
The price currently sits at 1.9%, and over its history it has traded. In the last 24 hours it moved 0.0 pts,. The market resolves Yes if, by Jan 1, 2027, the Iranian government legally recognizes same-sex marriage. Specifically, this requires a law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that grants two adults of the same sex the right to marry with identical legal status to opposite-sex marriages. Civil unions, domestic partnerships, or any form of limited recognition do not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad, without the ability to marry inside Iran, also fails to satisfy the criteria. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Formal developments that directly alter Iran’s legal framework for marriage could shift the probability. These include draft legislation advancing through parliament, a supreme court ruling that interprets existing law to permit same-sex unions, or an amendment to the constitution. All such changes would need to be in force by the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. The market watches for credible reports of any such action rather than speculative political signals.
FAQ
What counts as legal recognition?
A law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows same-sex couples to marry with the same status as opposite-sex couples under Iranian law.
Do civil unions or domestic partnerships qualify?
No, only full marriage recognition qualifies. Partial or limited forms of recognition, such as civil unions, do not count.
What if Iran recognizes foreign same-sex marriages?
That would not be enough. The recognition must permit same-sex couples to get married within Iran itself.
What is the resolution source?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, confirming whether legal recognition has occurred.
When does the market close?
The market evaluates whether legal recognition is in force by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any recognition after that deadline would not trigger a Yes resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice