Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 22.4% to 18.4% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? - Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Iran formally leaves the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027 at 10.8%, an outcome that requires a written notice to the United Nations under Article X.
10.8%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $412.0K
The market considers an Iranian NPT withdrawal before 2027 an unlikely scenario, with the vast majority of probability assigned to the status quo remaining.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 22.8% — a 5.8-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability of an Iranian NPT exit currently sits at 10.8%. It has fluctuated between 8.3% and 16.4% over the period tracked. In the last 24 hours, the odds have moved -0.1 pts;
This market resolves to 'Yes' if Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the NPT under Article X by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution turns on a binary event: an explicit Article X withdrawal notice from Iran before the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. The market sources its outcome from credible reporting consensus.
FAQ
What triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
Iran must issue an official written notice to the United Nations stating its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT, and credible reporting must confirm this by the deadline.
What is the deadline for this market?
The market has a hard cutoff of December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Any notice after that time does not count.
How is the outcome verified?
A consensus of credible reporting serves as the resolution source. The market does not rely on a single government statement or UN document alone.
Does any statement about the NPT count as withdrawal?
No. The notice must explicitly mention withdrawal under Article X. General criticism or threats do not meet the resolution criteria.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice