Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Will Israel annex any territory in 2025? Odds & probability
Markets currently price the probability of an Israeli annexation in 2025 at 0.0%, an outcome that appears effectively ruled out.
0.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Updated · Volume $534.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market overwhelmingly prices against annexation, with the remaining outcomes all long shots.
Context
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
The implied probability The 24-hour change is 0.0 pts. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Israel officially annexes territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, by 11:59 PM ET. Annexation means an official declaration or legal act claiming sovereignty over territory not previously claimed at the time of the market's creation. The 1980 Jerusalem Law and the Golan Heights Law are cited as qualifying examples. Settlers gaining administrative control without formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source is official information from the Israeli government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Several scheduled milestones could influence the odds. The eligible window opens on July 22, 2025—the first day a qualifying event could occur. Any official Israeli government decree or Knesset legislation during the window would trigger a resolution. The market closes on Jan 1, 2027, after which no new events count. Reports of an imminent or executed annexation could also shift sentiment as traders reassess the likelihood of a formal declaration.
FAQ
What counts as an official annexation?
An official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory it was not claiming at the time of this market's creation. The 1980 Jerusalem Law and the Golan Heights Law are given as examples.
What happens if settlers take control of land without a formal annexation?
Such a scenario would not trigger a 'Yes' resolution. The market requires an official government annexation, not just administrative control by settlers.
When does the market's assessment period start and end?
The review period runs from July 22, 2025, at the start of the day Eastern Time, through December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Only events within this window count.
How is the outcome determined?
The primary source is official Israeli government information. If official information is ambiguous or unavailable, the market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice