Will Israel Annex West Bank Before 2027? Odds & Probability
Markets price the probability that Israel officially annexes West Bank territory at 5.5% before the end of 2026, leaving the outcome unlikely.
Updated · Volume $91.0K
The 'Yes' outcome sits at unlikely levels, leaving 'No' as the strongly favored result.
Context
The contract currently changes hands at 5.5%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Israel officially annexes any West Bank territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Annexation means an official declaration or legal act claiming sovereignty over territory not previously claimed. The 1980 Jerusalem Law and the Golan Heights Law are qualifying examples; informal settler control does not count. The primary resolution source is official Israeli government information, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027 is the key date. Any formal declaration or legal action by the Israeli government extending sovereignty over West Bank land before then would decide the contract. Traders monitor political developments, diplomatic signals, and official announcements, all of which can shift the probability that a qualifying event occurs by the cutoff.
FAQ
What qualifies as annexation under this market's rules?
The market requires an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over West Bank territory that was not claimed at the market's creation. Examples include the 1980 Jerusalem Law and the Golan Heights Law. Acts of administrative control by settlers without formal annexation do not count.
When does this market resolve?
It resolves to 'Yes' as soon as a qualifying annexation occurs, or to 'No' if no such act takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
What sources determine the outcome?
Official Israeli government information is the primary source. If that is inconclusive, a consensus of credible reporting can be used.
Does a partial or symbolic sovereignty claim count?
Yes, if it constitutes an official declaration or legal act of annexation over any West Bank territory. The resolution criteria do not distinguish between full or partial annexations, as long as they meet the formal definition.
What happens if there is disagreement about whether an event qualifies?
The resolution relies on the primary source—official Israeli government information—or, if that is unclear, a consensus of credible reporting. The market operators will assess the evidence against the stated criteria.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice