Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 14.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Israel carries out double tap strike in central Gaza — Al Jazeera
Will Israel Launch Major Ground Offensive in Gaza? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a major Israeli ground offensive in Gaza at 10.5%, or unlikely. The operation, if it occurs, must involve more than 1,000 troops entering new territory during the contract’s window.
10.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Updated · Volume $757.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The “Yes” outcome dominates the market at unlikely, with all other scenarios regarded as long shots.
Context
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 16.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 18.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has moved from 6.5% to 14.5% over the period, and 0.0 pts in the last day. Despite any movement, it remains unlikely. Trading volume stands at $757.7K. The market resolves to “Yes” only if Israel initiates a major ground offensive during the designated window in May 2025, as defined in the contract terms. A major ground offensive means a large-scale operation where more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces enter Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. Smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions into existing buffer zones do not qualify. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. The probability could shift as reports about Israeli military activity emerge. The market’s window has a fixed start and end; any offensive must begin within that period to count. The resolution relies on credible media consensus, so conflicting accounts could introduce volatility.
FAQ
What is required for the market to resolve to “Yes”?
Israel must initiate a major ground offensive within the predefined May 2025 window. The operation must involve more than 1,000 ground troops entering Gazan territory not previously under Israeli control at the start of the offensive.
Do smaller military actions count?
No. The definition excludes raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
How does the market determine whether an offensive occurred?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting from established news sources.
Can the market resolve before the end of the window?
Yes. If a qualifying offensive is reported during the window, the market can resolve to “Yes” early.
What happens if reports conflict?
The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If reports are disputed, resolution may be delayed until a clear consensus emerges.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice