Israel–Gaza Ground Offensive: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the likelihood of a major Israeli ground offensive in Gaza by December 31 at 21.0%, a substantial minority view.
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Updated · Volume $702.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | 21.0% | +2.0 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
The "Yes" outcome—that Israel will launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31—is a substantial minority view, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
TRAJECTORY: The probability currently sits at 21.0%, having traded between 14.0% and 43.5%. Over the past day, the contract moved +2.0 pts. The price line has been relatively flat, with no sharp breaks. RESOLUTION & RULES: This market asks whether Israel will launch a major ground offensive during a specified nine-day window. A "major ground offensive" is defined as an operation involving more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. Smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions along buffer zones already held by Israel are explicitly excluded. The market will resolve to "Yes" only if such an offensive is initiated within that window; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. The market's deadline is Dec 31, 2025. WHAT WOULD MOVE THE NUMBER: Beyond the deadline itself, formal triggers are limited to the conditions laid out in the rules. The resolution source—a consensus of credible reporting—means that news reports confirming or ruling out an offensive of the required scale within the appropriate period will drive price changes. Any official Israeli statements about large-scale ground operations, or independent reporting that documents troop deployments meeting the 1,000-soldier threshold into new terrain, would be directly relevant to the market's eventual settlement.
FAQ
What qualifies as a major ground offensive?
It is an operation in which more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces enter Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. Smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control do not count.
How does the market resolve?
The market resolves to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive, as defined, within the specified nine-day window. If no such offensive starts during that period, the market resolves to "No". The determination is made by a consensus of credible reporting.
Who decides what constitutes credible reporting?
The resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, meaning that the platform or a designated committee assesses whether widespread, trustworthy news sources confirm the event. There is no single named authority; it relies on professional news judgment.
What if an offensive starts within the window but continues beyond it?
As long as the offensive is initiated during the specified nine-day period, the market will resolve to "Yes". The duration of the operation after the window closes is not relevant to the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice