Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 18.0% to 7.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31? Market odds & probability
As of 9 min ago, the probability stands at 5.5%, an outside chance that has moved little. The market resolves on whether President Herzog grants clemency by year-end.
5.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?
Updated · Volume $484.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The entire market rests on the pardon scenario, priced at unlikely odds; negligible options account for a tiny sliver of trading volume.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 17.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 19.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 29.0% — a 33.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 61.0% — a 44.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 35.5% — a 21.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 17.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 22.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
The number has hovered around 5.5% for most of the active period, trading between 5.5% and 65.5% with a 0.0 pts move in the last 24 hours. It has rarely strayed far from its current level, showing no sustained trend. The contract resolves to 'Yes' if Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges by the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Otherwise it settles at 'No'. The primary source is official information from the Israeli government, but a consensus of credible reporting also suffices. A sharp repricing would likely follow any credible signal from the presidency that clemency is under consideration. Conversely, the absence of action as the Jan 1, 2027 resolution date approaches would keep the probability subdued. Because the market relies on official confirmation or widely accepted reporting, unverified rumors are unlikely to shift the odds.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It asks whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon from President Isaac Herzog by December 31. The market resolves later, at Jan 1, 2027, based on whether such a pardon occurred.
How is the market resolved?
Resolution is based on official Israeli government information or a consensus of credible reporting. If such sources confirm a pardon, commutation, or clemency grant by the deadline, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, 'No'.
What counts as a pardon?
Any presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from President Herzog for any charges. Partial or conditional clemency would also trigger a 'Yes'.
When does trading end?
The market expires on Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. All positions are settled based on information available at that time.
Are there other possible outcomes?
No, the market is binary: only 'Yes' (a pardon occurs) and 'No' (no pardon by the deadline).
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice