Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 3.9% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Will North Korea invade South Korea by 2027? Odds & probability
Prediction markets give a 2.9% chance that North Korea launches a military offensive against South Korea by the end of 2026, making such an event a long shot.
2.9%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $444.7K
The 'Yes' outcome is a long shot at 2.9%, leaving no invasion as the overwhelming expectation.
Context
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 1.9% to 4.3% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 3.1% to 6.5% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 3.3% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 1.6% to 3.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability of invasion has stayed in the low single digits. The current reading of 2.9% reflects a prolonged period of minimal expectations. The market resolves to 'Yes' if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it settles as 'No.' The resolution source is official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; a consensus of credible reporting also suffices. The conditions that could move the probability are tied to the resolution mechanics: the deadline of Jan 1, 2027 and the list of resolution sources—official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the UN, any permanent UN Security Council member, or a consensus of credible reporting. The market’s price reflects the perceived odds that these sources will signal an invasion has begun.
FAQ
What constitutes an invasion under this market’s rules?
The market defines it as North Korea commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea.
Who determines whether an invasion has occurred?
The resolution source includes official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council. A consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
When does this market resolve?
The cutoff is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying offensive has commenced by then, the market resolves to 'No.'
Would a border skirmish trigger a 'Yes' resolution?
Not unless it meets the criteria of a military offensive intended to establish control over South Korean territory.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice