Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Bilytske by December 31?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of Russia capturing all of Bilytske by December 31 at 54.0%, a close to a coin flip prospect. The market resolves based on ISW map control shading.
54.0%-3.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
Updated · Volume $86.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | 54.0% | -3.0 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The December 31 expiry dominates trading; all other expiration dates are long shots.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 58.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 61.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 55.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 59.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 55.5% to 61.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 56.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The market currently stands at 54.0%. Trading has ranged from 47.5% to 64.5% over the period. The contract settles 'Yes' if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, the ISW map shows the entirety of Bilytske shaded red, indicating Russian control. The shading must persist through at least one full ISW daily update cycle; infiltration areas do not count. If Russia gains de facto control through a negotiated agreement, that also triggers a 'Yes,' even without immediate map confirmation. Once achieved, any subsequent loss of control does not reverse the resolution. The market's fate depends on ISW map updates showing full Russian control before the deadline. That deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Any daily ISW update or diplomatic development could move the probability. DeepStateMap serves as a fallback if ISW becomes unavailable.
FAQ
How is Russian control defined for this market?
Control is defined by red shading on the ISW Ukraine map covering all of Bilytske municipality, persisting through the next full ISW daily update. Infiltration areas (marked differently) do not qualify.
What happens if the map has a temporary error?
Temporary glitches are ignored. The shading must remain on the map until the next finalized ISW update to count.
Does a peace deal count if it cedes the territory?
Yes, if Russia establishes actual control as a result, even if the map does not immediately reflect it. An announcement alone without de facto control is not enough.
What if Russia captures the city but later loses it?
The market resolves 'Yes' at the moment full control is first achieved, even if control is later lost.
What is the backup resolution source?
If the ISW map becomes permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap (deepstatemap.live) will be used. If both are gone, a consensus of credible reporting may determine the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice