Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 61.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture All of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
Prediction markets currently price the likelihood of Russia capturing all of Chasiv Yar by December 31 at 62.0%. Resolution hinges on the ISW map showing the entire municipality under red shading by that date.
62.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
Updated · Volume $109.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | 62.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | 11.0% | +2.0 |
The year-end deadline is the favored outcome, while a capture by September 30 remains a substantial minority view.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 58.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 71.0% to 60.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 75.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 78.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 79.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 60.0% to 70.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 58.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 55.0% to 61.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
The headline probability sits at 62.0%. Over the market's lifetime it has ranged from 58.0% to 82.5%. The market settles to 'Yes' when the whole of Chasiv Yar appears under red shading on the ISW map by the resolution date, provided that shading persists through a full daily update cycle. Temporary map errors do not count. A capture that is later reversed still resolves to 'Yes', and a peace deal handing actual control to Russia also triggers a positive resolution. The probability reacts to the resolution date of Jan 1, 2027, the rhythm of ISW's daily assessments, and the rule that if ISW's map disappears, DeepStateMap or credible reporting can step in. New shaded areas that endure an update cycle directly alter the odds.
FAQ
What defines the capture of Chasiv Yar for this market?
The market resolves to 'Yes' when the ISW map shows the entire municipality of Chasiv Yar shaded red, indicating Russian control. This shading must remain through the next full ISW daily update.
Does Russia have to hold the city after capturing it?
No. Once Russia is assessed as controlling the entirety of Chasiv Yar, any subsequent loss of control does not affect the resolution. The market will have already settled to 'Yes'.
What if the ISW map is unavailable?
If the ISW map becomes permanently unavailable, the market will use DeepStateMap as an alternative source. If both are lost, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Can a negotiated settlement trigger a 'Yes'?
Yes. If Russia gains actual control over Chasiv Yar as part of a negotiated settlement, the market will resolve to 'Yes', regardless of whether the ISW map has shaded it red.
Do temporary map glitches count?
No. Any continuous red shading that appears due to a temporary glitch or error will not be considered. The shading must reflect assessed Russian control in the regular ISW updates.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice