Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture All of Lyman by Dec 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Russian capture of the entire Lyman municipality at 2.5%, an outcome that demands the area be fully shaded red on the ISW map by the end of 2026.
2.5%-0.6 pts 24h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $339.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | 2.5% | -0.6 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market assigns a low probability to a Russian capture by the deadline, with the complementary outcome making up the rest.
Context
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has been volatile. To resolve “Yes,” the ISW map must display continuous red shading covering all of Lyman municipality—identified by its light-grey boundary—by 11:59 PM ET on Jan 1, 2027. Qualifying shading types are “Assessed Russian Control,” “Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine,” or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours”; “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas” do not count. The shading must persist through one full ISW daily update cycle (if ISW skips a day, until the next finalized update). Minor mismatches along the border do not invalidate a capture. Once control is established, any later loss is ignored. If ISW is unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and if both fail, credible reporting consensus applies. A negotiated settlement granting Russia actual control also qualifies, even without ISW shading. What could shift the probability? The formal deadline of Jan 1, 2027 and any sustained ISW map update showing red across the full Lyman municipality are the core triggers. The map’s update cadence and resolution-source hierarchy (ISW, then DeepStateMap, then consensus) provide the only concrete levers for the market’s assessment.
FAQ
What counts as Russian “capture” of Lyman for this market?
The entire Lyman municipality must appear shaded red on the ISW map, with that shading persisting through one full daily update cycle. Shading types “Assessed Russian Control,” “Assessed Russian Advance,” or “Assessed Russian Gains” qualify; “Assessed Russian Infiltration” does not.
What happens if ISW is not available?
If the ISW map is unavailable, the market may use DeepStateMap. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome.
Does it matter if Russia loses control after capturing the area?
No. Once the capture criteria are met, any subsequent loss is irrelevant for resolving this market.
How is a negotiated settlement handled?
If Russia gains actual control of Lyman through a settlement, that qualifies for a “Yes” resolution, even without the ISW map showing red. A mere de jure announcement without control does not count.
What if the ISW map has a temporary glitch?
Temporary errors or glitches are disregarded. Only sustained, finalized updates that meet the shading criteria are considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice