Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 72.0% to 99.4% — a 27.4-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Rodynske Again? — Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31 at 99.5%.
99.5%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
Updated · Volume $189.1K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | 99.5% | — |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 99.0% — a 83.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 72.0% to 88.5% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 77.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 74.5% to 81.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 4 tracked outcomes and $189.1K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31, is priced at 99.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice