Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026 at 10.0%.

10.0%-1.5 pts 24h

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?

Updated · Volume $2.2M

2%21%39%57%Jun 25Jun 30Jul 4Jul 9Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?10.0%-1.5
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?4.0%-1.2
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?0.0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?0.0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?0.0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026?0.0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 14.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $2.2M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026, is priced at 10.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice