Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 39.1% to 15.8% — a 23.3-point move over the past day.
Russia captures Ternuvate by Feb 2026: Odds & Probability
The market prices a Russian capture of Ternuvate at 10.1%, calling it unlikely. Resolution depends on whether the ISW map shades the entire municipality red by the cutoff.
10.1%-0.1 pts 24h
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $142.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026? | 10.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Yes outcome—Russia capturing all of Ternuvate—is seen as unlikely by the market, with all other possibilities remaining remote.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 10.7% to 39.1% — a 28.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 10.4% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 9.8% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 13.5% to 3.4% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 15.5% to 4.9% — a 10.6-point move over the past day.
As of 4 min ago, the probability stands at 10.1%, with a volume of $142.2K.. The price has ranged from 9.3% to 55.8% during the observed window. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows the entire Ternuvate municipality under Russian control by Jan 1, 2027. Qualifying shading includes categories such as 'Assessed Russian Control,' 'Assessed Russian Advance,' or 'Assessed Russian Gains,' but not 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas.' Minor border discrepancies that leave tiny grey gaps along the municipality boundary are ignored; the entire area must be red in substance. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also counts, even without red shading. Once control is established before the deadline, any later loss is irrelevant. Should the ISW map become unavailable, the backup is DeepStateMap, and if both fail, a consensus of credible reporting will decide. Temporary map glitches are disregarded. What would shift the odds: Battlefield developments around Ternuvate that change the ISW shading, or any official declaration of control. The deadline of Jan 1, 2027 focuses attention on the clock, and any apparent Russian gains near the town would likely move the price.
FAQ
How is 'control' determined for this market?
It is based on the ISW map. If the entire Ternuvate municipality is shaded red—using categories like Assessed Russian Control or Assessed Russian Advance—by the resolution date, the market resolves to Yes. Small border mismatches are acceptable.
What if Russia captures Ternuvate but the ISW map does not reflect it?
The market relies on the ISW map as the primary source. If the map does not show red, the market resolves No, unless a fallback source is used because ISW is unavailable.
Does a negotiated settlement count if the ISW map is unchanged?
Yes. If Russia gains actual control of Ternuvate as part of a peace deal, the market resolves to Yes even without red shading, as long as control is established by the deadline.
What happens if Russia captures it but then loses control before the deadline?
Once control is established before the deadline, the market does not consider later changes. The Yes resolution is locked in.
What maps are used if ISW is unavailable?
The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map. If it becomes permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap is used. If both are gone, the market relies on credible reporting consensus.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice