Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 71.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026 at 77.5%.
77.5%+6.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $421.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | 77.5% | +6.0 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? | 5.0% | -1.5 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 66.0% to 76.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 85.5% to 66.0% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 83.0% to 78.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 75.0% to 83.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 74.5% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 50.5% to 75.0% — a 24.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 8 tracked outcomes and $421.3K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026, is priced at 77.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice