Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 7.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia capture Borova by Dec 31, 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets assign a 8.0% probability to Russia capturing the Borova intersection by end-2026, making it unlikely according to traders. The outcome hinges on daily ISW map updates tracking Russian control in Kharkiv Oblast.
8.0%+1.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $54.4K
This market has a single binary outcome; all attention is on whether Russian forces reach the Borova intersection by the deadline.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 7.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The contract now trades at 8.0%. It has ranged from 4.0% to 15.5% since launch. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily map shows any part of the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E shaded red by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The shading must reflect Russian control, advance, or gains—not infiltration areas—and must persist through one full ISW update cycle. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also qualifies. Once captured, any later loss does not change the resolution. Should the ISW map become unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as the fallback, followed by credible reporting if both are lost. Traders watch daily ISW updates for any red shading near Borova. The hard deadline is Jan 1, 2027; without a qualifying capture by then, the market settles to 'No'. Every 24-hour cycle without a change pushes the probability lower, while any confirmed Russian advance into the intersection would send it sharply higher.
FAQ
How is the intersection defined?
The specific coordinates 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, as shown on the linked maps.
What if Russia briefly takes the intersection then loses it?
Only the first time the intersection is captured counts; subsequent loss of control is irrelevant for resolution.
Can a peace deal trigger resolution?
Yes, if a negotiated settlement results in Russia actually controlling the territory, it counts as a capture even if not shaded on the ISW map. A paper agreement without physical control does not count.
What happens if ISW stops publishing its map?
The market would then use DeepStateMap; if both become permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting would determine the outcome.
How often does the ISW map update?
ISW issues daily updates, and any shading must persist through one full update cycle to count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice