Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.9% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Havrylivka by December 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026 at 5.3%.
5.3%-0.2 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $304.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026? | 5.3% | -0.2 |
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? | 2.4% | +0.7 |
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 6.0% to 4.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 7 tracked outcomes and $304.1K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026, is priced at 5.3%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice