Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 3.4% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Russia capturing the Kindrativka intersection by September 30 at 2.5%, a a long shot. Resolution hinges on the ISW map shading the area red by that date.
2.5%-0.1 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
Updated · Volume $72.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kindrativka by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Russian capture is priced as a long shot; all other listed outcomes are remote long shots.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 15.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 18.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 37.0% to 24.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 34.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 31.5% to 21.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The probability sits at 2.5% as of 13 min ago, having traded between 2.1% and 39.0%. This market resolves to Yes if the ISW map shades any part of the specific intersection in Kindrativka (coordinates provided) red by the resolution date. The shading must persist through the next full daily update cycle; temporary glitches do not count. The qualifying shading categories are 'Assessed Russian Control', 'Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine', or 'Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours'. 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' does not qualify. If Russia gains de facto control via a negotiated settlement, that also triggers a Yes, even if not shaded on ISW. Once captured, a subsequent loss of the area does not change the resolution. The deadline is Oct 1, 2026. The primary driver is the ISW map, which updates daily; each cycle could bring the area into the red. Any credible report of Russian forces reaching the intersection or the conclusion of a peace deal ceding the territory in practice would also shift the market.
FAQ
How does the market define "capture"?
Capture means the ISW map shades the specified intersection in Kindrativka red, in any of the qualifying categories, by the resolution date. The shading must persist through the next full daily update cycle.
What if the ISW map becomes unavailable?
If ISW is permanently unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used. If both are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome.
Can a negotiated settlement trigger a Yes resolution?
Yes, if Russia comes into actual control of the territory as a result of a settlement, it qualifies even without ISW shading. A mere announcement of de jure control is not sufficient.
What if Russia captures the intersection but then loses it?
Once the capture condition is met, any subsequent loss of control does not affect the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice