Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka? Market odds & probability
Prediction markets consider it strongly favored that Russia will seize the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026, pricing the chance at 94.1%.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Updated · Volume $7.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 94.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | 89.0% | +1.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | 42.0% | +3.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19? | 15.5% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | 0.0% | — |
The headline timeline of December 2026 is the dominant scenario; capture by earlier dates is seen as increasingly less probable, with the nearest-term dates carrying the lowest expectations.
Context
The market's assessment has fluctuated between 24.5% and 74.0%,. Beyond that, the only trigger is the official determination of control at that cutoff; the market does not hinge on intermediate events unless they alter the deadline or resolution criteria.
FAQ
What is this market predicting?
It gauges the likelihood that Russian military forces gain control of Kostyantynivka in Ukraine's Donetsk region by a specified date.
How is a 'capture' determined?
The market specifies a resolution source that evaluates territorial control at the deadline, typically based on credible reports from conflict monitors or official statements.
What happens if the date passes without a clear outcome?
If the resolution source cannot verify capture by the deadline, the market settles according to that source's default rule for unresolved events, which is usually a 'no' outcome.
Do battlefield gains before the deadline affect the probability?
The probability reflects the collective view on the final outcome. Advances or setbacks may shift expectations, but the market settles solely on whether control is established at the deadline.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice