Aug 19, 2026
Resolved: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026 — YES. A week before, markets priced it at 91%.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka? Market odds & probability: Result & Final Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30Resolved
Updated · Volume $10.0M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 86.4% to 99.1% — a 12.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 25.5% to 97.0% — a 71.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice