Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 36.5% to 25.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
Markets price the chance of Russia seizing the Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi railroad station by the end of December at 27.5%, leaving the situation a substantial minority view. The bet hinges on ISW maps showing red shading over the station by that date.
27.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
Updated · Volume $226.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | 27.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30? | 7.9% | +1.1 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Markets view a capture by December 31 as a substantial minority view, with the September 30 deadline also seen as a coin flip; the remaining earlier deadlines are effectively ruled out.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 27.0% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 34.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 38.0% to 41.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 36.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 36.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 39.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 42.5% to 35.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
The probability now sits at 27.5%. During the period it has fluctuated between 23.0% and 53.5%. For a “Yes” resolution on the December 31 deadline, the ISW map must show red shading over any part of the train station icon by that date, with the shading representing assessed Russian control, advances, or recent gains—not infiltration areas. The shading must persist through one full ISW daily update cycle. If Russia gains de facto control through a negotiated settlement, that also qualifies, regardless of the map. Any later loss of control after capture does not reverse the outcome. The market also includes a September 30 deadline, which works identically. The market’s odds are formally tied to the approach of the December 31 and September 30 cutoffs, the frequency of ISW map updates, and any confirmed changes in control status of the station area. The overall resolution date of Jan 1, 2027 provides the final backstop, though capture after December 31 would not satisfy the headline outcome.
FAQ
What exactly qualifies as a capture of the station?
Any part of the train station icon must be shaded red on the ISW map, indicating assessed Russian control, advance, or recent gains. Infiltration area shading does not count.
Does a negotiated settlement count?
Yes, if Russia gains de facto control of the station through a settlement, it qualifies as a capture even without red shading on the map.
What if ISW skips an update day?
The red shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published. A temporary glitch or missing day does not invalidate the condition.
Can the result change if Russia later loses the station?
No. Once the station is considered captured, any subsequent loss of control is ignored for this market.
What if the ISW map becomes unavailable?
DeepStateMap may be used as a fallback. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice