Will Russia capture Lyman by...?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026 at 25.0%.

25.0%-3.5 pts 24h

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Updated · Volume $3.0M

18%33%48%63%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 31
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?25.0%-3.5
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?5.5%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?0.0%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?0.0%0.0
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $3.0M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026, is priced at 25.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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