Will Russia capture Lyman by...?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026 at 14.0%.
14.0%+2.5 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $3.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | 14.0% | +2.5 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | 1.5% | -0.2 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $3.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026, is priced at 14.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice