Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 55.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Russia Captures Mala Tokmachka: Current Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets give Russia a 56.5% chance of seizing the intersection in Mala Tokmachka by Jan 1, 2027, as tracked by the ISW map.
56.5%-4.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $416.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | 56.5% | -4.0 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market views a Russian capture as close to a coin flip, while all other scenarios are distant long shots.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 62.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 58.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 57.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 61.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 59.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 64.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 61.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 57.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 51.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability currently sits at 56.5%. It has ranged from 42.5% to 67.5% over the observed period. Over the last day, the figure shifted by -4.0 pts. The market resolves to “Yes” if any part of the specified intersection (47.540813° N, 35.885706° E) is shaded red on the ISW Ukraine map by the resolution date, provided the shading persists through a full daily update cycle. Qualifying shades are “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours”; “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas” does not qualify. A temporary glitch in the map is disregarded. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also triggers a “Yes” resolution, regardless of map shading. Once the intersection is captured, subsequent loss of control does not change the outcome. If the ISW map is unavailable, the market may use DeepStateMap or, failing that, a consensus of credible reporting. The probability can shift with any developments near the intersection that might be reflected in the ISW map, such as confirmed Russian advances or control changes. The approaching resolution date Jan 1, 2027 also concentrates attention. Announcements of a negotiated settlement that might hand de facto control to Russia would likewise influence the odds.
FAQ
What does “capture” mean for this market?
The intersection is considered captured if any part of it appears shaded red under “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” on the ISW map, and the shading persists through at least one full daily update cycle.
What if the ISW map shows the area red but then removes it the next day?
The market considers the capture only if the shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. A single-day blip that is immediately corrected does not count.
How does a negotiated settlement affect the resolution?
If Russia obtains actual control of the territory as part of a settlement, the market resolves to “Yes” even if the ISW map does not color it red. An announcement alone is not sufficient; control must be established.
What if the ISW map becomes unavailable?
The market will first attempt to use DeepStateMap. If both are permanently unavailable, it will rely on a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice