Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 18.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Myropillia? Live Prediction Market Odds
Markets assign a 17.5% probability to Russia capturing the Myropillia intersection by December 31, a unlikely. Resolution hinges on ISW map shading at coordinates 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E.
17.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31?
Updated · Volume $93.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? | 17.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The central scenario—Russia capturing the intersection by December 31—is a unlikely; all other scenarios are priced as long shots.
Context
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 18.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 27.5% to 18.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 31.0% to 21.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 24.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 31.0% to 17.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 30.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
As of 7 min ago, the probability stands at 17.5%, having moved within a range of 16.5% to 27.5% over the period tracked. Trading volume sits at $93.2K. This market resolves 'Yes' if, by 11:59 PM ET on Jan 1, 2027, any part of that intersection is shaded red on the ISW Ukraine map, provided the shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. 'Assessed Russian Control', 'Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine', or 'Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours' all qualify; 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' does not. A negotiated settlement that delivers de facto control of the territory also triggers a 'Yes', whether or not the ISW map reflects it. Once the intersection is captured, any later loss of control does not reverse the resolution. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as a fallback; failing that, a consensus of credible reporting is used. Temporary map glitches are disregarded. Day-to-day shifts will track ISW updates, as traders weigh whether Russian advances in Sumy Oblast can reach and shade the intersection before the deadline. The only formal condition is that shading appears on or before Jan 1, 2027. Anything that accelerates or stalls front-line movement in this sector could alter market pricing, but the rules give no weight to anything beyond the map.
FAQ
What exactly must Russia control for a 'Yes'?
The intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast. Any part of it shaded red on the ISW map qualifies.
Which map shading counts?
Assessed Russian Control, Assessed Russian Advance, or Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours. Infiltration areas are excluded.
What if there is a negotiated settlement?
Actual Russian control established through a settlement qualifies, even without ISW shading. A de jure announcement without control on the ground does not.
What if the ISW map is unavailable?
DeepStateMap data is used; if both are unavailable, credible reporting determines the outcome.
Do temporary map errors count?
No. Glitches or errors are disregarded.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice