Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.5% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30?: Odds & Probability
Markets price a 61.5% chance that Russia captures the specified intersection in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by Oct 1, 2026.
61.5%
Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by December 31?
Updated · Volume $95.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by December 31? | 61.5% | — |
| Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30? | 3.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Yes outcome is a substantial minority view, while all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.8% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 4.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 16.0% to 6.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 18.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 18.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
After trading in a range of 27.0% to 61.5%, the probability now sits at 61.5%. The market resolves to Yes if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows Russian control — represented by red shading — over the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E by Oct 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Any such shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle to count. 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' do not qualify. Russian control via a negotiated settlement also counts, provided actual control is established and not merely a de jure announcement. Once the intersection is captured, subsequent loss of control does not reverse the resolution. If ISW becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting may serve as fallback sources. The market's value depends entirely on whether the ISW map reflects Russian control of that specific point before the deadline. No intermediate events or announcements outside the map updates trigger resolution; the binary outcome is settled at Oct 1, 2026 based on the map's status.
FAQ
What determines whether Russia has captured Novodmytrivka?
The market uses the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. The specific intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E must appear shaded red, indicating Russian control, and that shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
Does 'Assessed Russian Infiltration' count as capture?
No. Only shading reflecting 'Assessed Russian Control', 'Assessed Russian Advance', or 'Assessed Russian Gains' qualifies. Infiltration areas are explicitly excluded.
What happens if the ISW map is not available?
If the ISW map becomes permanently unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used. If both are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome.
Does Russia lose credit if it later withdraws from the area?
No. Once the intersection is captured as defined by the rules, any subsequent loss of control does not affect the market's resolution.
What if control is transferred through a peace deal?
If Russia gains actual control of the territory through a negotiated settlement, that qualifies as a Yes outcome. A mere announcement of de jure control without actual control on the ground does not suffice.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice