Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 23.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets put the chance of Russia seizing the Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka railway station by the end of 2026 at 19.5%, a probability best described as unlikely. The market hinges on ISW map data showing red shading over the station coordinates.
19.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $210.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | 19.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026? | 1.7% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome is the only one with a tangible probability, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 16.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 17.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 17.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 24.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Trading has kept the likelihood of a Russian capture within a narrow range. The current price of 19.5% sits between a period low of 16.5% and high of 32.5%, with a 24-hour shift of -1.0 pts and. Over the market’s life, the line has shown little inclination to break decisively higher, reflecting a steady if muted assessment. Resolution depends on the Institute for the Study of War’s interactive map. The market will settle as ‘Yes’ if, by Jan 1, 2027, any part of the station icon at 48.578748°N, 37.616899°E is shaded red, provided the shading indicates assessed Russian control, advance, or gains—and not mere infiltration. The color must survive through the next full ISW update cycle. In the event ISW becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap can serve as a substitute; if both fail, a consensus of credible reporting takes over. A negotiated settlement that yields actual Russian control also counts, even without red shading. Once the station is captured, a later loss does not reverse the outcome. Beyond the hard deadline of Jan 1, 2027, the number moves on each fresh ISW update. Any map change that shows Russian forces edging closer to the station, or conversely stalling, will shift the market. A sudden shading of the icon would resolve the market immediately, so the probability prices in the cumulative chance of that occurring by the cutoff.
FAQ
What map does the market rely on?
The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a backup and credible reporting as a last resort.
What counts as “capture”?
The station is captured if any part of its icon on the ISW map is shaded red with a qualifying label—Assessed Russian Control, Advance, or Gains—and that shading persists through the next ISW daily update.
Does the shading need to last?
Yes, it must remain in place through the next full ISW update cycle. A temporary glitch won’t count.
What if there’s a peace deal?
A negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control is not enough; actual control must be established. If that happens, the market resolves “Yes” even without red shading.
What if Russia takes the station but then loses it?
Once captured, later events do not matter. The market resolves “Yes” at the moment of capture.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice